‘Genuine emergency response’ needed to deal with future rise in liver disease

Experts have warned of major increases in the number of Scots living with long-term health conditions – with forecasts suggesting the number of women living with chronic liver disease is to rise by more than two-thirds by 2044.

It could take the number of women with the condition, which can be caused by alcohol, from 20,197 in 2019 to 33,834 in 2044 – an increase of 68% – prompting calls for a “genuine emergency response” from the Scottish Government.

It comes after Public Health Scotland (PHS) estimated the total number of people with chronic liver disease could rise by 53.5% over the 25-year period, going from 43,190 cases to 66,287.

This equates to almost an additional 23,100 people living with chronic liver disease in 2044, compared to 2019, according to the research – which took account of both historic trends and demographic changes in Scotland’s population.

Health campaigners at Alcohol Focus Scotland said the “shocking” rise was a result of the county’s “ongoing alcohol emergency”.

The PHS data also indicated the number of men with chronic liver disease could rise by 41% over the 25-year period, going from 22,993 in 2019 – when the number of males suffering from the condition was higher than the number of females – to 32,453 in 2044.

Laura Mahon, deputy chief executive of Alcohol Focus Scotland, said: “These shocking figures once again highlight the fact that Scotland is in the grip of ongoing alcohol emergency, which is only likely to worsen without a genuine emergency response.”

Adding that deaths from alcohol had reached a 15-year high, Ms Mahon said “alcohol-related liver disease is responsible for most of these deaths, with 805 people lost to this disease in 2023”.

She added: “It doesn’t have to be this way. Each of these deaths is entirely preventable and there are a range of well-evidenced and cost-effective prevention measures available which could be adopted.

“These include increased use of non-invasive liver scans to enable those at high risk to be identified sooner and provided with care and support to address their liver problem and their alcohol use.

“Restrictions on alcohol marketing and introducing clear health warning labels on alcohol products should form part of a new comprehensive alcohol strategy.

“Not only would these measures save thousands of lives, they would also substantially reduce the financial pressures on our health service, ultimately delivering better healthcare for everyone.”

Her comments came as PHS also forecast significant rises in the number of Scots suffering from two other significant long-term health conditions – the lung condition chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and atrial fibrillation, which can lead to an increased risk of strokes, heart failure and early death.

Over the 25-year period the number of Scots with COPD – a lung condition where treatment can only slow down the progression of the disease, rather than reverse it – is estimated to increase by 63%, going from 134,300 prevalent cases to 219,000.

PHS said this would mean an additional 84,700 people living with COPD in 2044, compared to 2019.

Meanwhile, the number of people suffering from atrial fibrillation – where an irregular heartbeat can leave them feeling as if their heart is pounding, racing, fluttering, skipping or missing a beat – is estimated to increase by 56%, going from 113,700 prevalent cases in 2019 to 177,600 by 2044.

The health body added this would mean an additional 63,900 people living with atrial fibrillation in 2044, compared to 2019.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said the projections “are a sobering reminder of the action needed to deal with an ageing population and an increase in complex health needs”.

He added: “The SNP lack the vision and understanding to fix our NHS. Thanks to their mismanagement, patients are waiting a lifetime for treatment while staff are on their knees, burnt-out on every shift.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said the data was prepared to assist with future planning for health and care services.

They added: “The predicted increases in these conditions are not inevitable – effective prevention at all levels can help people live with lower levels of severity and reduce demand for services.”

The spokesperson added that a population health framework is being developed jointly by the Scottish Government together with council leaders at Cosla, PHS and other key partners.

“This will focus on improving population health through education, prevention and early intervention, and maximising access to services, and will be published in the coming months,” the spokesperson said.